· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Southern District vs Shatin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Southern District and 1.74 for Shatin, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Southern District the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southern District home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southern District to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Southern District and 1.74 for Shatin, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Southern District
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kowloon City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kowloon City · 3-1 (W)
Shatin
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | North District | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Hong Kong FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Shatin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Southern District | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.