Sozopol vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sozopol and 1.59 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Sozopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Sozopol or Draw

66.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sozopol win44%

Draw22%

Neftochimic Burgas win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–18.7%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.0%

Why the model likes this

Sozopol home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sozopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Sozopol and 1.59 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Sozopol

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 3-4 (L)
2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rakovski 2011 · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)

Neftochimic Burgas

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodopa Smolyan	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Spartak Plovdiv	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Levski Krumovgrad	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Maritsa Milevo	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Yambol 1915	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Sayana Haskovo	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Botev Plovdiv II	1	1	0	0	2	3
8	Atletik Kuklen	2	1	0	1	1	3
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Rozova dolina	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Neftochimic Burgas	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Sekirovo Rakovski	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Zagorets	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Dimitrovgrad	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Gigant Saedinenie	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Sozopol	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Levski Karlovo	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.