Sozopol vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Sozopol and 1.70 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Sozopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sozopol win

47.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sozopol home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sozopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Sozopol and 1.70 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sozopol win48%

Draw21%

Neftochimic Burgas win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.4%
1–17.9%
2–27.1%
1–26.7%
3–15.9%

Recent form

Sozopol

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Milevo · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)

Neftochimic Burgas

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 4-2 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 1-3 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2025-11-01T12:30:00.000Z · Sozopol 0-0 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2021-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 1-1 Neftochimic Burgas (Second League)
2021-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 3-2 Neftochimic Burgas (Second League)
2020-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · Sozopol 1-0 Neftochimic Burgas (Second League)
2020-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · Sozopol 2-0 Neftochimic Burgas (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 1-1 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)
2018-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · Sozopol 2-1 Neftochimic Burgas (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sozopol win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.