Spaeri Stadium · Referee A. Parjikia · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Spaeri vs Rustavi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Spaeri and 1.65 for Rustavi, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Rustavi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rustavi win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spaeri home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rustavi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Spaeri
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-3 (L)
Rustavi
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · Spaeri 1-3 Rustavi (David Kipiani Cup)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 1-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 1-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 2-2 Rustavi (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 2-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2025-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 0-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2025-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 0-0 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 2-0 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2024-12-01T09:30:00.000Z · Spaeri 1-2 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2024-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 3-1 Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rustavi win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.