Spaeri Stadium · Referee T. Samsonashvili · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Spaeri vs Samgurali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Spaeri and 1.35 for Samgurali, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Spaeri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spaeri win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spaeri home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Samgurali away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spaeri to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Spaeri and 1.35 for Samgurali, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Spaeri
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-3 (L)
Samgurali
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 3-4 Samgurali (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-07-20T13:30:00.000Z · Spaeri 0-1 Samgurali (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 0-0 Samgurali (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Spaeri 4-1 Samgurali (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spaeri win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.