· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Spain U20 W vs Mexico U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Spain U20 W and 1.00 for Mexico U20 W, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Spain U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spain U20 W win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spain U20 W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mexico U20 W away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spain U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Spain U20 W and 1.00 for Mexico U20 W, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Recent form
Spain U20 W
- 2026-03-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Netherlands U19 W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-03-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U20 W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-02-28T11:00:00.000Z · H vs England U20 W · 3-1 (W)
- 2024-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-09-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Canada U20 W · 2-1 (W)
Mexico U20 W
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U20 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spain U20 W win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.