· Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Spalding United vs Alvechurch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Spalding United and 1.18 for Alvechurch, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Spalding United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spalding United win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spalding United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spalding United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Spalding United and 1.18 for Alvechurch, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Spalding United
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanley Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 2-1 (W)
Alvechurch
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourne Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spalding United win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.