Royal Lakes Complex · Analysis updated 22:54 UTC
Spanish Town Police vs Portmore United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Spanish Town Police and 2.05 for Portmore United, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Portmore United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portmore United win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spanish Town Police home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portmore United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portmore United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 17% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Spanish Town Police and 2.05 for Portmore United, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.1%
Recent form
Spanish Town Police
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Arnett Gardens · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapelton · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-04-23T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmore United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 0-3 (L)
Portmore United
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portmore United win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.