Sparta Brno vs Humpolec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sparta Brno and 0.95 for Humpolec, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Sparta Brno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Brno home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Humpolec away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Brno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sparta Brno and 0.95 for Humpolec, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Brno win43%

Draw29%

Humpolec win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–113.2%
0–011.1%
0–110.5%
2–08.7%

Recent form

Sparta Brno

2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Humpolec · 1-0 (W)

Humpolec

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Havlíčkův Brod · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Velká Bíteš · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Znojmo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chotebor · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · Sparta Brno 1-0 Humpolec (4. liga - Divizie D)
2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · Sparta Brno 3-2 Humpolec (4. liga - Divizie D)
2025-08-23T08:30:00.000Z · Sparta Brno 1-1 Humpolec (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kuřim	12	8	1	3	34	25
2	Sparta Brno	12	8	1	3	11	25
3	Tatran Bohunice	12	7	3	2	14	24
4	Velká Bíteš	12	7	3	2	8	24
5	Havlíčkův Brod	12	6	2	4	5	20
6	FS Třebíč	11	6	2	3	-2	20
7	Znojmo	12	5	3	4	5	18
8	Sokol Tasovice	11	4	5	2	7	17
9	Pelhřimov	11	4	2	5	3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	12	3	5	4	-4	14
11	Humpolec	11	2	4	5	-5	10
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	11	2	4	5	-7	10
13	Chotebor	11	2	4	5	-11	10
14	Velké Meziříčí	11	2	4	5	-14	10
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	2	3	6	-3	9
16	Bedrichov	12	0	2	10	-41	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.