· Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Sparta Brno vs Kuřim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sparta Brno and 2.56 for Kuřim, a combined total of 4.36. That distribution gives Kuřim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kuřim win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Brno home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kuřim away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuřim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Sparta Brno and 2.56 for Kuřim, a combined 4.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.8%
Recent form
Sparta Brno
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havlíčkův Brod · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Humpolec · 1-0 (W)
Kuřim
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Velké Meziříčí · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuřim win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.