· Analysis updated 20:07 UTC
Sparta Brno vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Sparta Brno and 1.50 for Ždírec nad Doubravou, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Sparta Brno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Brno win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Brno home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ždírec nad Doubravou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Brno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Sparta Brno and 1.50 for Ždírec nad Doubravou, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Sparta Brno
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Velké Meziříčí · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 2-1 (W)
Ždírec nad Doubravou
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chotebor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FS Třebíč · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Brno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Sokol Tasovice | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 7 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Brno win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.