· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Sparta Katowice vs Havířov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.91 for Havířov, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Katowice win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Katowice home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Havířov away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.91 for Havířov, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Sparta Katowice
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 2-0 (W)
Havířov
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Polanka nad Odrou · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Frýdek-Místek · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Katowice win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.