Sparta Katowice vs ROW Rybnik Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.80 for ROW Rybnik, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sparta Katowice win

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Katowice home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ROW Rybnik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.80 for ROW Rybnik, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Katowice win68%

Draw19%

ROW Rybnik win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–012.1%
1–011.4%
2–19.7%
1–19.1%
3–08.6%

Recent form

Sparta Katowice

2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakow II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-1 (W)

ROW Rybnik

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	13	9	1	3	9	28
2	Sparta Katowice	13	8	3	2	13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	7	4	2	7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	6	2	5	4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	13	5	2	6	3	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	4	3	6	3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	5	0	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	3	5	5	-8	14
15	Rakow II	12	3	3	6	-6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	3	3	7	-12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	3	1	9	-12	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sparta Katowice win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.