Sparta Katowice vs Stal Jasień Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Sparta Katowice and 1.15 for Stal Jasień, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sparta Katowice win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Katowice home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Jasień away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Sparta Katowice and 1.15 for Stal Jasień, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Katowice win67%

Draw17%

Stal Jasień win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.3%
2–08.1%
3–17.8%
1–17.4%
3–06.8%

Recent form

Sparta Katowice

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 2-0 (W)

Stal Jasień

2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Słowianin · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	10	1	3	11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	8	4	2	8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	14	7	6	1	11	27
5	ROW Rybnik	14	7	2	5	7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	6	4	4	6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	6	3	5	5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	6	3	5	2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	6	0	7	-4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	5	2	7	1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	4	3	7	2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	3	5	6	-10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	4	1	9	-11	13
16	Rakow II	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sparta Katowice win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.