· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Sparta Lichtenberg vs Krieschow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sparta Lichtenberg and 1.14 for Krieschow, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Sparta Lichtenberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Lichtenberg win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Lichtenberg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krieschow away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Lichtenberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Sparta Lichtenberg and 1.14 for Krieschow, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Sparta Lichtenberg
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makkabi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Klosterfelde · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neustrelitz · 4-1 (W)
Krieschow
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dresden II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Budissa Bautzen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Plauen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Halle · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Germania Halberstadt · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Lichtenberg win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.