Sparta Lichtenberg vs Tasmania Berlin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sparta Lichtenberg and 2.13 for Tasmania Berlin, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Sparta Lichtenberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sparta Lichtenberg win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Lichtenberg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tasmania Berlin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Lichtenberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 19% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Sparta Lichtenberg and 2.13 for Tasmania Berlin, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Lichtenberg win46%

Draw19%

Tasmania Berlin win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

2–27.0%
2–16.6%
1–25.8%
3–25.7%
1–15.4%

Recent form

Sparta Lichtenberg

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makkabi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Klosterfelde · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neustrelitz · 4-1 (W)

Tasmania Berlin

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	BAK '07	9	4	4	1	3	16
4	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	FC Lok Stendal	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Union Klosterfelde	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	9	2	1	6	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sparta Lichtenberg win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.