· Analysis updated 08:55 UTC
Sparta Nijkerk vs Sportlust '46 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Sparta Nijkerk and 1.68 for Sportlust '46, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Sparta Nijkerk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Nijkerk win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Nijkerk home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportlust '46 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Nijkerk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Sparta Nijkerk and 1.68 for Sportlust '46, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Sparta Nijkerk
- 2026-10-03T12:45:00.000Z · A vs SVZW · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercules · 1-2 (L)
Sportlust '46
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ADO '20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior '31 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harkemase Boys | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | ACV | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Poortugaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Dongen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | GOES | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | ADO '20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Hoogeveen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | TOGB | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Eemdijk | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 13 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Nijkerk win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.