Sparta Praha II vs Dukla Praha II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sparta Praha II and 0.78 for Dukla Praha II, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Sparta Praha II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sparta Praha II win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Praha II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Praha II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sparta Praha II and 0.78 for Dukla Praha II, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Praha II win66%

Draw20%

Dukla Praha II win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.5%
2–012.5%
1–19.7%
2–19.7%
3–08.3%

Recent form

Sparta Praha II

2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Loko Vltavín · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Povltava FA · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benešov · 1-1 (D)

Dukla Praha II

2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Příbram II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Admira Praha · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Motorlet Praha · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs České Budějovice · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - CFL A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	České Budějovice	12	8	2	2	21	26
2	Králův Dvůr	11	8	2	1	13	26
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	11	7	2	2	11	23
4	Motorlet Praha	12	7	2	3	9	23
5	Jiskra Domažlice	12	6	3	3	2	21
6	Loko Vltavín	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Sparta Praha II	9	4	4	1	11	16
8	Slavia III	12	4	2	6	1	14
9	Admira Praha	12	4	2	6	-4	14
10	Příbram II	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Bohemians 1905 II	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Dukla Praha II	12	2	5	5	-3	11
13	Písek	11	2	5	4	-7	11
14	Benešov	11	2	4	5	-8	10
15	Aritma Praha	12	1	6	5	-17	9
16	Povltava FA	12	0	2	10	-21	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha II win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.