· Analysis updated 13:11 UTC
Sparta Praha II vs FSV Zwickau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Sparta Praha II and 2.30 for FSV Zwickau, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives FSV Zwickau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.5% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Zwickau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Zwickau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 39% / 19% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Sparta Praha II and 2.30 for FSV Zwickau, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–15.6%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Sparta Praha II
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Loko Vltavín · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Povltava FA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benešov · 1-1 (D)
FSV Zwickau
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-17T14:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha II 3-2 FSV Zwickau (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.