epet ARENA · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.95 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Sparta Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Praha win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Ostrava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Sparta Praha and 0.95 for Baník Ostrava, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Sparta Praha
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)
Baník Ostrava
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.