Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.63 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives FK Jablonec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sparta Praha home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Jablonec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Jablonec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sparta Praha and 1.63 for FK Jablonec, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Praha win36%

Draw24%

FK Jablonec win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–28.6%
2–18.1%
0–17.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Sparta Praha

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysočina Jihlava · 5-3 (W)

FK Jablonec

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Czech Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	12	8	4	0	20	28
2	Sparta Praha	12	7	1	4	12	22
3	Mlada Boleslav	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Sigma Olomouc	12	6	3	3	4	21
5	Slovan Liberec	11	6	2	3	6	20
6	FK Jablonec	12	6	2	4	3	20
7	Zbrojovka Brno	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Teplice	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	Plzen	12	4	4	4	3	16
10	Bohemians 1905	11	4	4	3	0	16
11	Hradec Králové	12	4	3	5	-4	15
12	Pardubice	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Baník Ostrava	11	3	2	6	-11	11
14	Artis	11	2	3	6	-9	9
15	Slovácko	12	1	4	7	-12	7
16	Zlin	12	0	2	10	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.