epet ARENA · Referee Jan Benes, Czechia · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.13 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Sparta Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Praha win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Pardubice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Sparta Praha
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)
Pardubice
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Žižkov · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-30T17:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-4 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2025-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 3-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2025-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2024-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2023-12-03T14:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2023-08-05T13:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 5-2 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2023-04-09T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 5-2 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2022-03-13T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 3-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2021-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 4-2 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Zbrojovka Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Artis | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.