epet ARENA · Referee J. Machalek · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.40 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Slavia Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Praha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.66 | 34.5% | 36.1% | 2.77 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.36 | 68.8% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 60.3% | 61.6% | 1.62 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.2% | 44.2% | 2.26 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.2% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.0% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.0% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.1% | 63.9% | 1.56 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 56.8% | 55.8% | 1.79 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.6% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.2% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.4% | 25.5% | 3.92 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sparta Praha
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)
Slavia Praha
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 0-3 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 3-0 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2026-03-08T17:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 1-3 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2025-10-05T16:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 1-1 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2025-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 1-2 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2025-03-08T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 2-0 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 1-2 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 0-0 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-03-03T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 0-0 Slavia Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-02-28T17:00:00.000Z · Sparta Praha 3-2 Slavia Praha (Cup)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Teplice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.