TC Strahov · Analysis updated 07:58 UTC
Sparta Praha W vs Farul Constanţa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Sparta Praha W and 2.56 for Farul Constanţa W, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Farul Constanţa W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 2.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanţa W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farul Constanţa W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 37% / 19% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Sparta Praha W and 2.56 for Farul Constanţa W, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.8%
- 2–35.7%
- 2–15.2%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Farul Constanţa W
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SSU Poli Timişoara W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda MC W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Cluj W · 8-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.