· Analysis updated 18:37 UTC
Sparta Praha W vs Horní Heršpice W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Sparta Praha W and 0.42 for Horní Heršpice W, a combined total of 4.92. That distribution gives Sparta Praha W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Praha W win
96.1% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Horní Heršpice W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Sparta Praha W and 0.42 for Horní Heršpice W, a combined 4.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
4%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–012.5%
- 5–011.3%
- 3–011.1%
- 6–08.4%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Horní Heršpice W
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Liberec W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Praha W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 27 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Prague Raptors W | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovácko W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 6 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 7 | Baník Ostrava W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha W win, at 96.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.