epet ARENA · Analysis updated 05:24 UTC
Sparta Praha W vs Slavia Praha W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sparta Praha W and 2.28 for Slavia Praha W, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Slavia Praha W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slavia Praha W win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Praha W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Praha W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Sparta Praha W and 2.28 for Slavia Praha W, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Slavia Praha W
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prague Raptors W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko W · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec W · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 27 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Slovácko W | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 13 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 6 | Prague Raptors W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Baník Ostrava W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -29 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slavia Praha W win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.