· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Sparta Praha W vs Viktoria Plzeň W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.62 expected goals for Sparta Praha W and 0.92 for Viktoria Plzeň W, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Sparta Praha W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Praha W win
85.5% probability
Expected goals
3.62 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Praha W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viktoria Plzeň W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.62 goals for Sparta Praha W and 0.92 for Viktoria Plzeň W, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
- 4–07.7%
- 2–07.0%
- 4–17.0%
Recent form
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Viktoria Plzeň W
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovácko W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Liberec W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Slovácko W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -16 | 7 |
| 7 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -25 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha W win, at 85.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.