Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Referee Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands · Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.05 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Feyenoord win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Rotterdam home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Feyenoord away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Feyenoord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.05 for Feyenoord, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.7% | 20.8% | 4.81 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.35 | 39.4% | 40.5% | 2.47 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 41.3% | 41.9% | 2.39 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 38.0% | 2.63 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.61 | 58.0% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 79.4% | 79.2% | 1.26 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 62.0% | 1.61 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 79.4% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.6% | 59.5% | 1.68 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.3% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -2.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.