Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.65 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Rotterdam home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PSV Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-11T16:45:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-18T12:30:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-05T10:15:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 2-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-08T14:45:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-06T16:45:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-10T20:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (KNVB Beker)
- 2023-01-07T20:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.