Stadion Shinnik · Analysis updated 07:46 UTC
Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Spartak Kostroma and 0.91 for Chelyabinsk, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Spartak Kostroma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Kostroma win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Kostroma home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chelyabinsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Kostroma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Spartak Kostroma and 0.91 for Chelyabinsk, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Spartak Kostroma
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 1-0 (W)
Chelyabinsk
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC UFA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KAMAZ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Kostroma win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.