Stadion Urozhay · Referee A. Sagdiev · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Spartak Kostroma vs Leningradets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Spartak Kostroma and 0.95 for Leningradets, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Spartak Kostroma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Kostroma win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Kostroma home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leningradets away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.6%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Spartak Kostroma
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
Leningradets
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-14T10:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 0-1 Leningradets (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
- 2025-03-02T11:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 1-2 Leningradets (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
- 2024-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 0-2 Leningradets (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2024-07-28T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 2-1 Leningradets (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2023-06-04T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 0-3 Leningradets (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · Spartak Kostroma 0-2 Leningradets (Second League - Group 2)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Kostroma win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.