Lukoil Arena · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Spartak Moscow vs Akron Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.90 for Akron, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Spartak Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Moscow win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Moscow home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Akron away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Spartak Moscow
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
Akron
- 2026-10-24T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-09T16:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 4-3 Akron (Premier League)
- 2025-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-1 Akron (Premier League)
- 2025-04-19T11:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 3-2 Akron (Premier League)
- 2025-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 3-2 Akron (Cup)
- 2024-11-10T12:15:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 4-0 Akron (Premier League)
- 2023-04-19T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-2 Akron (Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moscow win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.