Lukoil Arena · Referee Artem Chistyakov, Russia · Analysis updated 07:16 UTC
Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.70 for FC Orenburg, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Spartak Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Moscow win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Moscow home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Orenburg away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 2–012.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Spartak Moscow
- 2026-10-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
FC Orenburg
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-1 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 5-1 FC Orenburg (Cup)
- 2026-03-22T10:45:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-0 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2025-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-0 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2025-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-0 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-07-21T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-2 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-05-25T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 3-1 Orenburg (Cup)
- 2023-11-29T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-1 Orenburg (Cup)
- 2023-07-23T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 3-2 Orenburg (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moscow win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.