Lukoil Arena · Analysis updated 07:26 UTC
Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.95 for Rubin, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Spartak Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Moscow win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Moscow home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rubin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
Spartak Moscow
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-1 (W)
Rubin
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T15:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-1 Rubin (Cup)
- 2026-07-08T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Rubin (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-11T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-1 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2025-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-0 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2025-03-09T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-2 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2024-08-31T16:45:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-0 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2024-05-19T11:15:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 3-1 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 4-1 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2022-04-16T16:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-1 Rubin (Premier League)
- 2021-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-1 Rubin (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moscow win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.