Lukoil Arena · Referee Inal Tanashev, Russia · Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Spartak Moscow vs Zenit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.35 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Moscow home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 71.7% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 72.2% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.53 | 37.9% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.02 | 45.8% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.87 | 50.9% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.81 | 34.2% | 34.5% | 2.90 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.46 | 65.8% | 65.6% | 1.52 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.94 | 49.1% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 62.0% | 60.9% | 1.64 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.71 | 54.2% | 52.9% | 1.89 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.44 | 27.9% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.24 | 28.3% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Spartak Moscow
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-1 (W)
Zenit
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-1 Zenit (Super Cup)
- 2026-04-08T17:45:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Zenit (Cup)
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-2 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2025-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-2 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2025-03-16T16:45:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 2-1 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2025-02-11T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-3 Zenit (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2024-04-17T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Zenit (Cup)
- 2024-04-03T17:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 1-2 Zenit (Cup)
- 2024-03-02T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Moscow 0-0 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.