Cherenkov Academy Stadium · Analysis updated 03:09 UTC
Spartak Moskva W vs Dinamo Moskva W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Spartak Moskva W and 0.59 for Dinamo Moskva W, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Spartak Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Moskva W win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Moskva W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Moskva W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 21% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Spartak Moskva W and 0.59 for Dinamo Moskva W, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 2–015.0%
- 3–09.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Spartak Moskva W
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubin Kazan W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 5-0 (W)
Dinamo Moskva W
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zenit W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasnodar W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rostov W · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 56 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 49 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 44 |
| 5 | Dinamo Moskva W | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Krylya Sovetov W | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -20 | 20 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -14 | 17 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -38 | 14 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -30 | 12 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 21 | 0 | 3 | 18 | -40 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moskva W win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.