Spartak Plovdiv vs Sekirovo Rakovski Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.24 for Sekirovo Rakovski, a combined total of 4.84. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv win

80.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.60 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spartak Plovdiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sekirovo Rakovski away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.24 for Sekirovo Rakovski, a combined 4.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win80%

Draw11%

Sekirovo Rakovski win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

3–17.6%
4–16.9%
2–16.3%
3–06.1%
4–05.5%

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-1 (W)

Sekirovo Rakovski

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spartak Plovdiv win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.