· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Spartak Plovdiv vs Sozopol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.36 for Sozopol, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Plovdiv win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Plovdiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sozopol away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.36 for Sozopol, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Spartak Plovdiv
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-1 (W)
Sozopol
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Milevo · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 30 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Sayana Haskovo | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Yambol 1915 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | Neftochimic Burgas | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Gigant Saedinenie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Rodopa Smolyan | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Dimitrovgrad | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Plovdiv II | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Zagorets | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletik Kuklen | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 17 | Levski Karlovo | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Plovdiv win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.