· Analysis updated 01:33 UTC
Spartak Police n/Metují vs Turnov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Spartak Police n/Metují and 2.08 for Turnov, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Turnov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Police n/Metují home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Turnov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turnov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Spartak Police n/Metují and 2.08 for Turnov, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–35.1%
Recent form
Spartak Police n/Metují
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Letohrad · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrudim II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosmonosy · 1-4 (L)
Turnov
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Hlinsko · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Hradec Králové · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Letohrad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chrudim II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Turnov | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 19 |
| 9 | Kolín | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Dvůr Králové | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 12 | Hlinsko | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Vykan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -20 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 5 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -35 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.