Football pitch Spartak Pribram · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Spartak Pribram vs Milevsko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Spartak Pribram and 0.75 for Milevsko, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Spartak Pribram the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Pribram win
82.4% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Pribram home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milevsko away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Pribram to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Spartak Pribram and 0.75 for Milevsko, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.6%
- 2–010.5%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Spartak Pribram
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jiskra Domažlice II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Petřín Plzeň · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hořovicko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Český Krumlov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárov · 1-1 (D)
Milevsko
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Soběslav · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hluboka nad Vltavou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jiskra Domažlice II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Petřín Plzeň · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hořovicko · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petřín Plzeň | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Spartak Pribram | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Křimice | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Komárov | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Hořovicko | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Soběslav | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Doubravka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | Strakonice | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Pribram win, at 82.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.