Štadión Antona Malatinského · Referee Boris Benedik, Slovakia · Analysis updated 08:07 UTC
Spartak Trnava vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.44 expected goals for Spartak Trnava and 0.95 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Trnava win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
2.44 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Trnava home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Banská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Trnava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.44 goals for Spartak Trnava and 0.95 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–08.1%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Spartak Trnava
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Komárno | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.