Spartak Trnava vs FK Košice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Spartak Trnava and 1.95 for FK Košice, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spartak Trnava win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spartak Trnava home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Košice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Trnava win50%

Draw19%

FK Košice win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

2–17.2%
2–27.0%
3–15.9%
1–15.9%
3–25.7%

Recent form

Spartak Trnava

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)

FK Košice

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Trnava · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Harichovce · 7-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 2-1 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2025-10-29T17:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 3-1 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 0-1 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2025-04-06T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 1-2 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2024-12-14T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 1-0 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 1-1 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2024-02-03T15:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 3-2 FK Košice (Cup)
2023-11-12T16:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 2-0 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2023-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 3-0 FK Košice (Super Liga)
2022-03-01T17:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava 2-1 FK Košice (Cup)

Super Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dunajska Streda	11	9	2	0	29	29
2	Spartak Trnava	12	6	4	2	10	22
3	Slovan Bratislava	11	6	3	2	14	21
4	Žilina	11	6	3	2	5	21
5	Podbrezová	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	FK Košice	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Zemplín Michalovce	12	4	2	6	-8	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	12	4	2	6	-10	14
9	Skalica	12	2	4	6	-10	10
10	Ružomberok	12	2	3	7	-14	9
11	AS Trencin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
12	Komárno	11	0	6	5	-7	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.