City Arena Trnava · Referee L. Dzivjak · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Spartak Trnava vs Zemplín Michalovce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Spartak Trnava and 0.82 for Zemplín Michalovce, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Trnava win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Trnava home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zemplín Michalovce away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Trnava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Spartak Trnava and 0.82 for Zemplín Michalovce, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Spartak Trnava
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)
Zemplín Michalovce
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Žilina | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | Skalica | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Komárno | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | AS Trencin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.