City Arena Trnava · Analysis updated 10:41 UTC
Spartak Trnava W vs Ružomberok W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Spartak Trnava W and 1.40 for Ružomberok W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Trnava W win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Trnava W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ružomberok W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Trnava W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Spartak Trnava W and 1.40 for Ružomberok W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Spartak Trnava W
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Z. Moravce-Vrable W · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W · 1-0 (W)
Ružomberok W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárno W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava W · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Myjava W | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovan Bratislava W | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 27 |
| 3 | Trenčín W | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Z. Moravce-Vrable W | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 5 | Komárno W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 14 |
| 6 | Tatran Prešov W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Spartak Trnava W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 13 |
| 8 | Ružomberok W | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 4 |
| 10 | Petržalka W | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -36 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava W win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.