City Arena Trnava · Analysis updated 19:19 UTC
Spartak Trnava W vs Trenčín W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Spartak Trnava W and 1.70 for Trenčín W, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartak Trnava W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trenčín W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Spartak Trnava W
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Z. Moravce-Vrable W · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W · 1-0 (W)
Trenčín W
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Z. Moravce-Vrable W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 1-5 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2026-05-09T08:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 0-0 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2026-03-28T14:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 2-0 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2026-02-21T09:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 0-1 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2025-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 0-2 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 2-1 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2025-04-24T15:15:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 0-0 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 3-2 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2024-08-10T09:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 1-4 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
- 2024-03-16T09:00:00.000Z · Spartak Trnava W 3-0 Trenčín W (I Liga - Women)
I Liga - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Myjava W | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovan Bratislava W | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 27 |
| 3 | Trenčín W | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Z. Moravce-Vrable W | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 5 | Komárno W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 14 |
| 6 | Tatran Prešov W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Spartak Trnava W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 13 |
| 8 | Ružomberok W | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 4 |
| 10 | Petržalka W | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -36 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.