Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Spartak Varna and 0.76 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Spartak Varna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

75.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spartak Varna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Varna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.76 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Varna win44%

Draw31%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–017.1%
0–015.2%
1–113.0%
0–111.5%
2–09.6%

Recent form

Spartak Varna

2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-6 (L)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

2026-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	8	3	0	18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	8	2	0	14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	8	1	3	12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	6	1	5	-1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	-2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	3	4	5	-6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	2	5	4	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	3	2	7	-6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	-11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	1	6	5	-7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	-11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.