· Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Spartakos Kitiou vs MEAP Nisou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Spartakos Kitiou and 0.68 for MEAP Nisou, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Spartakos Kitiou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartakos Kitiou win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartakos Kitiou home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MEAP Nisou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 63.8% vs market 50.3%, edge +13.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 50.3% | 63.8% | 1.57 | +13.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.1% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.5% | 80.8% | 1.24 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.3% | 19.2% | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.7% | 36.2% | 2.76 | -13.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Spartakos Kitiou
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs MEAP Nisou · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polemidion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahironas / Onisilos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halkanoras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs APEA · 0-4 (L)
MEAP Nisou
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartakos Kitiou · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Digenis Morphou · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ASIL Lysi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Doxa · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · Spartakos Kitiou 4-1 MEAP Nisou (2. Division)
- 2025-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Spartakos Kitiou 1-1 MEAP Nisou (2. Division)
- 2025-04-02T13:30:00.000Z · Spartakos Kitiou 2-2 MEAP Nisou (2. Division)
- 2025-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Spartakos Kitiou 1-1 MEAP Nisou (2. Division)
- 2024-11-23T12:30:00.000Z · Spartakos Kitiou 1-0 MEAP Nisou (2. Division)
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartakos Kitiou win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.