Stadionul Suruceni · Analysis updated 08:07 UTC
Spartanii Selemet vs FCM Ungheni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Spartanii Selemet and 4.50 for FCM Ungheni, a combined total of 6.24. That distribution gives FCM Ungheni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FCM Ungheni win
81.3% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartanii Selemet home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FCM Ungheni away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–45.8%
- 1–55.2%
- 1–35.1%
- 2–45.0%
- 2–54.5%
Recent form
Spartanii Selemet
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FCM Ungheni · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 1-6 (L)
FCM Ungheni
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Cutezători · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Spartanii Selemet 1-1 FCM Ungheni (Liga 1)
- 2025-04-15T12:00:00.000Z · Spartanii Selemet 1-0 FCM Ungheni (Cupa)
- 2025-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Spartanii Selemet 3-3 FCM Ungheni (Cupa)
- 2022-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Spartanii Selemet 1-4 FCM Ungheni (Liga 1)
- 2021-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · Spartanii Selemet 1-0 FCM Ungheni (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vulturii Cutezători | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Iskra | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | FC National Ialoveni | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Univer Comrat | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Făleşti | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | Zimbru II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FCM Ungheni win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.