Stadionul Suruceni · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Spartanii Selemet vs Zimbru II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Spartanii Selemet and 3.22 for Zimbru II, a combined total of 5.12. That distribution gives Zimbru II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zimbru II win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 3.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartanii Selemet home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zimbru II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zimbru II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 21% / 16% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Spartanii Selemet and 3.22 for Zimbru II, a combined 5.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.3%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.9%
- 2–25.6%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
Spartanii Selemet
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FCM Ungheni · 2-5 (L)
Zimbru II
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FCM Ungheni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zimbru II win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.