Ainslie Park · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Spartans vs Elgin City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Spartans and 2.36 for Elgin City, a combined total of 4.62. That distribution gives Elgin City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 2.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spartans home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elgin City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elgin City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 39% / 19% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Spartans and 2.36 for Elgin City, a combined 4.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.2%
- 2–15.9%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Spartans
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dumbarton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 5-1 (W)
Elgin City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Clyde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Annan Athletic | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.