· Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Spelle-Venhaus vs Bersenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 1.45 for Bersenbrück, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Spelle-Venhaus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spelle-Venhaus win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spelle-Venhaus home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bersenbrück away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spelle-Venhaus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 1.45 for Bersenbrück, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Spelle-Venhaus
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-1 (W)
Bersenbrück
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Verden 04 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vorsfelde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Wilhelmshaven | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Heeslinger SC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Meppen II | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Bersenbrück | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Verden 04 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Nordhorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Hemmingen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 7 |
| 15 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
| 16 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spelle-Venhaus win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.